Plastic pollution health risks may double by 2040, says Lancet study

The global health impact of plastic pollution could more than double by 2040 if current production and waste trends continue, according to a new study published in The Lancet Planetary Health. Researchers warn that emissions from the plastics system, including greenhouse gases, air pollutants and toxic chemicals, are already harming human health and may worsen sharply in the coming years.

The study also notes that worldwide plastic production is unlikely to peak before 2100. Continued growth in production could increase environmental damage and put additional pressure on already strained public health systems.

Plastic Lifecycle Emissions Linked to Serious Diseases

Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and institutions in France examined the full lifecycle of plastics. This includes raw material extraction, polymer manufacturing, product use, waste collection, recycling, landfill disposal, open burning and environmental leakage.

They found that emissions released at each stage contribute to serious health problems. These include illnesses linked to global warming, respiratory diseases caused by air pollution, cancers associated with toxic exposure and other non communicable diseases.

The study found that the greatest health risks come from the production of primary, or virgin, plastics and from the open burning of plastic waste.

First Global Study to Measure Health Burden in DALYs

This is the first global level study to measure the health burden of plastics in terms of disability adjusted life years or DALYs. This public health metric estimates the years lost due to illness, disability or premature death.

Under a business as usual scenario between 2016 and 2040, the researchers project that health harms related to the global plastics system could more than double.

Lack of Transparency Hampers Effective Policy

The researchers also pointed out that limited disclosure about the chemical composition of plastics is restricting accurate lifecycle assessments. Without full transparency, it becomes difficult for governments to design effective regulations and reduce risks.

The team has developed a flexible model that can be updated as new data becomes available. This framework can help improve estimates of health impacts linked to plastics and potential alternatives.

Call for Reduction in Virgin Plastic Production

The study recommends a deep reduction in the production of virgin plastics, particularly for non essential uses. Experts say that meaningful change requires globally coordinated policies that address plastics from production to disposal.

More than 175 countries are currently negotiating a Global Plastics Treaty to tackle plastic pollution. Researchers stress that strong action, especially reducing new plastic production, will be critical to protecting both environmental and human health in the decades ahead.

(with inputs from agencies)